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Cambridge-INET Institute   COVID-19 Economic Research

 

This paper analyses data from the European CDC on the number of new cases of COVID-19 infection and the number of new deaths by country, with a view to predicting the future turnaround of the upward trends. We work with a quadratic time trend model applied to the log of new cases for each country. Our model is used to predict the likely peak of the epidemic in different countries.

Russia and France (and Ecuador, but this was delayed reporting ) reported significantly more cases than predicted by the model. Belgium reported significantly less deaths than predicted by the model. Otherwise the outcomes were within the model bounds.

Read the latest version of Prof. Linton's paper: When will the Covid-19 Pandemic Peak?

 

See the latest tables and figures - updated Sunday 31st May 2020

 

Cases

Deaths

Cases

Deaths

 


Professor Oliver Linton

About the author
Professor Oliver Linton is the Professor of Political Economy in the Faculty of Economics and a Fellow of Trinity College, University of Cambridge. His research is focussed on nonparametric and semiparametric methods with an interest in Financial Econometrics.